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- Daily Energy Market Update August 11, 2026
Energy markets remain volatile this morning as conflicting signals around a potential U.S.-Iran agreement continue to drive crude prices. Oil rallied overnight as concerns over the Strait of Hormuz remained elevated, but prices gave back much of the move after comments from Pakistan suggested the two sides could be closer to an arrangement. The market remains highly sensitive to headlines that could affect the timing of a potential reopening of the waterway.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key driver of crude prices. A resolution that allows shipping activity to normalize would ease supply concerns and likely reduce some of the risk premium in crude, while continued disruptions would keep pressure on global oil and refined product markets. The uncertainty around negotiations is likely to keep volatility elevated in the near term.
Refined products, particularly diesel, continue to face supply concerns. Disruptions related to the broader Middle East conflict, along with ongoing risks to refining and product supplies, are keeping refined products firmly in focus. This remains an important area for traders to watch as the market looks ahead to the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Attention will also turn to the latest U.S. energy market data and the upcoming inflation report, with higher energy prices potentially adding to inflation concerns. For now, the market remains headline-driven, with developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz likely to remain key catalysts for crude and refined product prices.
Crude (CL1)
Crude is up 1.61 at 83.66 (6:27 AM). Yesterday's rally stalled at the 20-day moving average. Price is now trading above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages for the first time in a week, improving the near-term price structure. A sustained move above these levels would bring the 100-day moving average at 89.22 into focus.
Momentum is approaching oversold territory but continues to point lower, showing that momentum has yet to confirm the recent strength in price.
Key Levels
Resistance
• 89.22 – 100-day moving average
• 90.66 – Upper Bollinger Band
• 93.50 – July 23 high
Support
• 82.24 – 20-day moving average
• 80.26 – 50-day moving average
• 76.78 – 200-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Heating oil opened lower overnight but then rallied to a new high for the move off the June lows. The high at 4.2832 stalled just below the upper Bollinger Band at 4.3003.
Momentum has moved out of oversold territory and is pointing lower, creating a bearish divergence as price makes a new high. A close back below the previous highs would provide confirmation of a reversal.
Key Levels
Resistance
• 4.3003 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
• 4.0122 – 20-day moving average
• 3.7262 – Lower Bollinger Band
• 3.6103 – 50-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is trading down .33 at 7.83 (7:14 AM) after rallying to a high of 8.88 overnight. A close below 8.16 would confirm the bearish reversal and could signal that the recent rally is losing momentum.
Momentum has moved into the neutral zone but continues to point lower, suggesting there could be a deeper pullback if a bearish close confirms the reversal signal.
Key Levels
Resistance
• 9.36 – Upper Bollinger Band
• 9.57 – Highest high since the July low
Support
• 6.87 – 20-day moving average
• 5.98 – 100-day moving average
• 5.42 – 50-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGU26)
Natural gas is down 0.040 overnight after closing above the 20-day moving average for the first time in more than a month yesterday. The pullback following yesterday's strong rally has been relatively small, with price now trading back below the 20-day moving average at 2.785.
Momentum has turned higher from deeply oversold territory after moving sideways for several weeks, suggesting a lack of directional conviction. A sustained move above the 20-day moving average would provide a more meaningful signal that momentum is shifting higher.
Key Levels
Resistance
• 2.784 – 20-day moving average
• 2.951 – Upper Bollinger Band
• 2.999 – 50-day moving average
Support
• 2.690 – Gap from Friday to Monday
• 2.617 – Double bottom and Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGU26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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