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- Daily Energy Market Update April 8,2026
April 8, 2026
WTI is down $20.55 at $92.40 June RB is down 35.80 cents at $2.8090 ULSD is down 76.30 cents at $3.7144
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
The energies have fallen back markedly as President Trump and Iran accepted a Pakistani ceasefire proposal, which calls for a 2 week halt to military operations and a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. World equity markets have rallied strongly on the ceasefire news.
Oil futures cratered on Wednesday morning after President Trump suspended a wide-ranging bombing campaign on Iran and announced a two-week ceasefire in the US-Iran war. Iran's foreign minister confirmed its acceptance of the temporary truce in a statement shortly after Trump’s post. President Trump added that the US received a "10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate" bringing this long-term problem "close to resolution." (Yahoo Finance)
The Iranian navy on Wednesday morning told ships anchored near the Strait of Hormuz that they still required Iran’s permission to cross the strait, according to WSJ. As of Tuesday, 187 tankers laden with 172 MMBBL of seaborne crude and refined oil products remained inside the Gulf, according to Kpler, a global trade intelligence firm. (CNN) With more than 1,000 ocean-going vessels trapped within the gulf, it would likely take more than two weeks to clear the backlog even under normal conditions, said one researcher. Two shipbrokers said shipowners are likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode before allowing vessels to enter the Gulf. "Most of the crude tankers will be allowed to pass," one shipping brokerage researcher said, adding that he expects more than 50 Very Large Crude Carriers ( meaning up to 100 MMBBL worth of oil) and about 15 Suezmaxes ( with up to 15 MMBBL) to exit.(Reuters)
Still, media reports have said new military and drone strikes hit areas in the Persian Gulf on Wednesday morning. (Investing.com) An explosion at a refinery in Iran has been reported. The source of the explosion is unknown, as per the Iranian Mehr news agency. The refinery is located on Lavan Island, off Iran's Gulf coast, and has a 55 MBPD capacity. the Mehr agency is also reporting of an explosion on Sirri island in the Gulf. (Argus media/Reuters) Bloomberg is reporting that Kuwait is "dealing with intense Iran attacks." Drone attacks targeted vital oil facilities and power stations.
But, the terms under which tankers will be allowed to pass through the strait remain unclear, with Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reporting that Iran and Oman plan to charge transit fees — a situation unlikely to be acceptable to the United States and its allies. Iran has in recent weeks charged some shipping companies a reported $2 million fee to guarantee safe passage through the strait. Iran said its military would regulate passage through the Strait of Hormuz, granting the country “unique economic and geopolitical standing,” according to a statement from Iran’s Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council. Transit fees of $1-2 million per tanker would add roughly $1 per barrel to the cost of oil transported through the Strait, according to one economist. Iran also emphasized that the ceasefire was only temporary.(CNN)
The US average retail fuel prices have risen further today, as per AAA data. Gasoline at the pump costs $4.164 today. That is up 2.4 cents from yesterday and up $1.182 from February 27. Diesel fuel's average pump price is $5.669. This is up 2.3 cents from yesterday and up $1.912 from February 27.
API Forecast Actual
Crude Oil +0.713/-1.6 +3.72
Gasoline +0.237/-1.9 -3.97
Distillate +0.117/-2.2 -0.599
Cushing n/av -0.6
Runs -0.5/+0.9% n/av
The EIA released its Monthly Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday. They reduced their global oil production forecast while reducing their global oil demand forecast as well. Global oil production in 2026 is seen at 104.3 MMBPD; this forecast is down 2.7 MMBPD from last month. The EIA estimates that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in 7.5 MMBPD of crude oil production in March. The EIA assesses that production shut-ins will rise to 9.1 MMBPD in April. Global oil demand in 2026 is seen at 104.6 MMBPD, which is down 0.6 MMBPD from last month. The EIA raised their price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline and diesel. WTI is forecast to average $87.41 in 2026, which is up $13.80 from March's forecast. Brent is seen averaging $96.00 in 2026; this forecast is up $17.16 from last month. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $103/bbl in March, and we expect it to peak in the second quarter of 2026 at $115/bbl before easing as production shut-ins slowly abate. The retail gasoline price forecast for 2026 was lifted by 36 cents to $3.70. The wholesale diesel price forecast for 2026 was lifted by 63 cents to $3.40. The retail diesel price was lifted by 68 cents to $4.80.
The IATA (airline trade association) chief says jet fuel supply could take months to recover after Hormuz reopening given disruptions to Middle East refining capacity. (Reuters)
Due to a lack of feedstocks, Japanese oil refineries cut utilisation rates to 67.7% capacity in the week to April 4 from 72.5% a week ago. That is a 9 month low utilization rate. (Quantum Commodities)
Energy Market Technicals
Momentum is negative for the energies. there are gaps on the Brent and ULSD DC charts from today's action.
WTI spot futures see support at 89.51 and then at 86.34-86.46. Resistance comes in at 97.50-97.65 and then at 99.78-99.95.
Brent spot futures have a gap up to 102.71 from today's action. Support comes in below at 81.16.
June RB--now the highest volume contract month-sees support at 2.7876 and then at 2.7690. Resistance lies at 2.8915-2.8925 and then at 2.9263-2.9284.
The ULSD DC chart shows a gap up to 4.2908. May ULSD support comes in at 3.6161-3.6178 and then at 3.5509-3.5518. Resistance comes in at 3.8425-3.8447 and then at 3.9616-3.9627.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is down 12.0 cents at $2.750
Henry Hub futures prices have followed the decline in the wider energy complex down to the lowest since August. TTF futures have gapped lower. A bearish US weather outlook has alos weighed on prices. But, some support may come from strong feedgas demand and lower gas production.
Market News data shows LNG terminal feedgas demand is estimated to rebound 1.21 BCF/d today to 19.16 BCF/d. The rise is driven by a recovery in Sabine Pass, Freeport, Cameron and Plaquemines flows.
US Lower 48 states dry gas production is estimated down to 110.3 BCF/d today from 111.4 BCF/d yesterday and compared to a 30-day average of 112.0 BCF/d, Market News data shows.
"The near-term temperature outlook remains just about as bearish as it can get", Celsius Energy writes.
TTF spot European gas futures prices have gapped lower on the back of the ceasefire agreement in the Mideast. The gap goes up to Euro 48.830. The current price for the spot May TTF futures is 44.300 Euro/Mwh (=$15.22 /MWH). The TTF price is thus down nearly 17% from Tuesday's settlement. The drop is the biggest one-day reduction in more than two years. The contract has tested the DC chart's lower bollinger band today. That band lies at about Euro 45.25. Support is seen at the 42 Euro area and then at the 38 Euro area. Above the gap, resistance comes in at 50.50-50.56.
Bloomberg is reporting that Qatar has begun work to resume production at its LNG export plant.
The EIA in their monthly STEO issued Tuesday reduced their NG price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, while lowering their demand forecast and raising their production estimate. The 2026 average Henry Hub price is forecast to be $3.67, which is down 9 cents from last month's estimate. The 2027 price estimate was lowered by 26 cents to $3.59. US gas production is seen at 109.6 BCF/d for 2026, which is up 0.1 BCF from March's forecast. In 2027, US gas production is seen at 112.6 BCF/d, up 0,3 BCF/d from last month's figure. US gas demand for 2026 is seen at 90.6 BCF/d, which is lower by 0.8 BCF/d from last month's figure. But, in 2027 demand is seen at 92.7 BCF/d, which is up 0.6 BCF/d from March's estimate. The EIA sees end October 2026 gas inventories at 4,015 BCF, which they say is 6% more than the five-year average.
NG spot futures tested support at 2.721-2.724 with an overnight low of 2.707. Below that support is seen at 2.689. Resistance lies at 2.888-2.889. The DC chart, though, shows momentum trying to turn positive from an oversold condition.
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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