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- Daily Energy Market Update April 16,2026
April 16, 2026
June WTI is up $1.13 at $89.26 June RB is up 2.89 cents at $3.0340 May ULSD is up 9.82 cents at $3.8514
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are higher as concerns linger over the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz even as talks between the US and Iran are said to be set to resume. A weaker dollar, better than expected Chinese GDP data and bullish DOE data seen Wednesday are further supportive of energy prices.
A source briefed by Tehran told Reuters that Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a deal in talks between the US and Iran. The proposal marks the first visible step by Tehran to pull back from more combative ideas floated in recent weeks, which included charging ships for passage through the international waterway and imposing sovereignty on the strait. The Reuters source added that the proposal hinged on whether Washington was prepared to meet Tehran’s demands, a condition that was central to any potential breakthrough with the strait. U.S. and Iranian officials were considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as the coming weekend. (Reuters)
ING analysts wrote today:" we estimate that roughly 13 MMBPD of oil supply has been disrupted. But with the US blockade, this number could creep higher. "
Wednesday's DOE data was bullish with a crude oil draw--versus the expected build. Gasoline demand was also bullish. Distillate and gasoline supplies fell much more than forecast, as refinery runs fell rather than rose. Crude oil inventories fell by 0.913 MMBBL. The crude inventory draw should have been much bigger --even as crude inputs to refineries fell by 208 MBPD. Net crude imports fell on the week by 2.109 MMBPD to a total of 66 MBPD --thus the US was almost a net exporter of crude oil. US exports rose to a 7 month high of 5.225 MMBPD. The record high is 5.6 MMBPD, which was seen in 2023. U.S. exports are likely to touch about 5.2 MMBPD for April, an analyst at Kpler said, adding that exports were pushing up against capacity limits on a monthly basis. The U.S. can export as much as 6 MMBPD, traders and analysts said, citing limited pipeline capacity and vessel availability. (Reuters) This week's EIA crude oil accounting adjustment added 938 MBPD ( =6.566 MMBBL) to supplies. Distillate demand fell on the week by 220 MBPD to 3.840 MMBPD--this is 18 MBPD less than last year but 174 MBPD more than seen in 2024. Distillate supplies fell by 3.122 MMBBL. Gasoline demand rose on the week by 524 MBPD to a healthy figure of 9.088 MMBPD--beating the prior 2 years demand by 626 and 426 MBPD. Gasoline inventories fell by 6.328 MMBBL.
Chin's first quarter GDP data showed growth of 5.0%, beating the Reuters expectation for a reading of +4.8%. The first quarter GDP data rose from the prior quarter's growth of 4.5%. Robust exports offset sluggish domestic consumption. In the first quarter, China’s exports grew 14.7% from a year earlier in terms of U.S. dollars, the fastest pace since early 2022, according to EUI. But, In March, the country’s export growth slowed to 2.5%, down sharply from 21.8% in the January-to-February period as the Iran war pushed up energy and logistics costs, weighing on global demand. For the first quarter, industrial production jumped 6.1% year on year, outpacing retail sales’ quarterly growth of 2.4%, underscoring manufacturing’s continued dominance as the economy’s primary growth engine even as consumption lags. China’s factory‑gate prices rose in March for the first time in more than three years, signaling that a spike in energy costs has started seeping into the manufacturing sector and threatening already-thin corporate margins. (CNBC)
Ukraine drone strikes targeted multiple locations in Russia overnight into Thursday, April 16. Among the locations hit was the Tuapse refinery and the port. The refinery is one of the 10 largest in Russia. The facility plays a key role in supplying the Russian military, producing automobile gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil, and raw materials for petrochemicals. (Kyiv Independent)
The European Union is drafting plans to tackle a looming jet fuel supply crunch and maximize refinery output, officials said. European airlines have warned of jet fuel shortages within weeks as a result of the Iran war, disrupting travel ahead of summer. Europe is more dependent on jet fuel imports, with some 75% from the Middle East, than for any other transport fuel. (Reuters)
The US dollar lingered near six-week lows, extending losses against major currencies for an eighth straight session on Wednesday, as per Reuters commentary.
Today is the last trading day for the May WTI options. There are no nearby option strikes on the CME that have open interest of over 10,000 contracts. Thus the options expiration should not have any noticeable effect on the futures settlement today. Market News commentary re WTI options reads as follows: " The second month WTI call-put option skew has softened slightly in the last week but maintains a significant bias to the calls of +16.3% as the market weighs ongoing supply risks amid speculation of further US-Iran talks. The Dec 26 call-put skew is holding around +5%."
Energy Market Technicals
Momentum for the June WTI remains negative, but that for the May ULSD, June RB and the Brent on the DC chart basis has turned positive.
June WTI sees support at 84.16-84.23. Resistance lies at the 92.66 area.
Spot Brent futures see support at 94.20-94.42, which was almost tested with today's low of 94.43. Below that support lies at 90.40. Resistance is seen at 99.45-99.50.
June RB support lies at 2.9522-2.9534 and then at 2.9058-2.9068. Resistance comes in at 3.0576-3.0588 and then at 3.0855-3.0856.
May ULSD support comes in at 37303-3.7331. Resistance lies at 3.9254-3.9276.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 0.5 cents at $2.615
NG futures are near unchanged with momentum basis the May NG daily and DC charts turning upward from an oversold condition and with today's price action showing a 2nd day in a row of higher lows. Although words being used to describe the NG market are "rangebound" and "languish". Today's EIA gas storage number is seen as mildly bearish as the surplus to the 5 year average is seen widening.
Today's EIA gas storage data is forecast to show a build of 51 BCF, as per WSJ & Reuters surveys. This compares to last year's build of 22 BCF and the 5 year average build of 38 BCF.
On Wednesday, NGI’s Spot Gas National Average dropped by 22.5 cents to $1.245/MMBtu, per NGI’s MidDay Price Alert, while the Henry Hub next day cash price dropped by 3.5 cents to $2.750.
U.S. LNG exports are consistently flowing through the Panama Canal for the first time in five months as Asia seeks more spot cargoes. Since early March, at least 1 U.S. cargo a week has been shipped through the route, according to Kpler data. (NGI) "JKM continues to trade at a premium to TTF, so we should be seeing cargoes being redirected towards Asia.", ING writes.
After averaging around 22.3 BCF/d since mid-March, residential and commercial natural gas demand is expected to fall to 16.8 BCF/d in the coming seven days, according to Wood Mackenzie. Demand has been trending below last year’s levels since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, LNG feed gas demand has recovered from slight dips at the end of March and is seen averaging 19.4 BCF/d during the next week, according to the firm. Feed gas nominations are around 3.4 BCF/d higher than during the same period in 2025. (NGI)
Support for the spot NG futures lies at 2.569-2.570 and then at 2.514-2.516. Resistance comes in at 2.722-2.723 and then at 2.795-2.796.
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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