Daily Energy Market Update April 15,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

WTI futures prices are higher now after dipping overnight to a 3 week low. The overnight fall was due to news circulating that the US & Iran had in principal agreed to an extension of their truce. But, the Strait of Hormuz remains "constrained", and the US has ramped up some pressure on Iran via sanctions and banking restrictions. Immediate physical crude deliveries are in demand. Distillate prices are leading the way today with the API data seen last night showing a larger than forecast draw.

President Trump said talks with Tehran on ending the war could resume this week. (BBC/Reuters)

The U.S. will ‌not renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week, and quietly let a similar waiver on sanctions on Russian oil expire over the weekend. The waiver, which the Treasury Department issued on March 20, allowed some 140 MMBBL of oil to ​reach global markets and helped relieve pressure on energy supply during the war on Iran, the US Treasury Secretary said last month. The waiver is set ​to expire on April 19. The U.S. did not renew the waiver on Russian oil at sea which expired on Saturday, the sources said. Also, the Treasury added pressure on Tuesday on countries and administrations that host banks the U.S. says have helped funds get to ​Iran, one of the sources said. Treasury ​sent letters to China, Hong ⁠Kong, the UAE, and Oman identifying banks that have allowed Iranian illicit activity. (Reuters)

API                 Forecast       Actual
Crude Oil    +0.15/+1.0     +6.10
Gasoline      -1.7/-2.1       +0.626
Distillate      -2.0/-2.4         -3.4
Cushing           n/av             -1.7
Runs           +0.2/+0.4%      n/av

Physical crude prices remain strong as refiners seek alternative supplies. A cargo of WTI Midland for delivery to Rotterdam traded at a record premium of $22.80 a barrel above benchmark European prices on Tuesday. This comes after news seen Monday, which showed the price of physical crude oil cargoes for ‌prompt delivery to Europe hit a record high near $150 a barrel on Monday and those for Africa hit new peaks, according to LSEG data and traders. The outright price of North Sea Forties crude ​reached $148.87 a barrel on Monday, LSEG data showed, exceeding its 2008 peak. In West Africa, Nigerian Bonny Light and Qua Iboe crudes are being offered in excess of a $10 premium to ​dated Brent, a trader said, a record high for that grade. Refined product prices have also soared. The price for diesel cargoes delivered to North West Europe reached around $170 per barrel on Friday, according to LSEG data, up from around $102 before the war started. Jet fuel cargo prices have doubled since the conflict began. They are now trading $200/bbl. (Reuters)

A US destroyer stopped two ⁠oil tankers from ⁠leaving Iran on Tuesday, a US official said. (Reuters) Iran's military said the US by continuing the blockade would be breaking the ceasefire and that Iran would not allow ships to and from the Gulf if the blockade remains. (Market News)

Energy Market Technicals

Technically the Brent and ULSD DC charts are showing momentum that looks poised to turn upward. 

Additionally the Brent DC chart shows several lows in the same area from 4 of the past 5 sessions. Those lows range from today's 93.93 low to the low from yesterday of 94.42. Support below that is seen at 91.68-91.70. Resistance comes in at 99.45-99.50.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 0.4 cents at $2.603
NG futures are slightly higher now as they are having an inside trading session versus yesterday's price range.  US weather demand remains weak and natural gas storage is seen as ample with tomorrow's EIA data set to see the surplus to the 5 year average increase.

Tuesday saw the NG spot futures fall to their lowest DC price since early November, 2024. Tuesday's fall was seen being caused by some temporary weakness in LNG demand due to maintenance at some LNG plants. On Tuesday, NGI’s Spot Gas National Average fell by 5.5 cents to $1.470/MMBtu, as per NGI’s MidDay Price Alert.

US natural gas prices remain largely insulated from Middle Eastern supply risks, amid near-record domestic production, comfortable storage levels, and constraints on LNG export capacity, reads one market commentary. (Trading Economics) Spot power and natural gas prices in Texas and California turned negative on April 14, as mild weather reduced both heating and cooling demand. (Reuters)

Natural Gas futures open interest on the CME rose Tuesday by 23,927 contracts--even as the spot May futures contract saw open interest fall by 27,135 contracts. The decline in May open interest is largely due to the index fund roll that ended Tuesday. The total open interest showed large increases in the June, July and March 2027 contracts, which we believe were more new shorts being added.

The easing of concerns over supply for next winter as end of injection season inventories are seen as ample saw the December 2026 through February 2027 strip fall more than the prompt futures contracts. The winter strip fell by 7.1 to 9.5 cents, while May was down 2.8 cents and June was down 3.1 cents.

Technically, the DC chart shows momentum for the spot NG futures to be oversold. Support lies at 2.579-2.588, which was tested with the overnight low of 2.570. Below that support is seen at 2.514-2.516. Resistance comes in at 2.795-2.796 and then at 2.865-2.870.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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