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- Daily Energy Market Update April 1,2026
April 2, 2026
WTI is down 59 cents at $100.79 RB is down 6.16 cents at $3.1423 ULSD is down 0.74 cents at $4.1064
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Crude oil is lower as President Trump has signaled a possible end to the Iran conflict. A bearish crude inventory build in the API data is likely also weighing on prices.
Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the U.S. could end the military campaign within two to three weeks and that Iran does not have to make a deal to end the conflict. Secretary of State Rubio said the United States could "see the finish line". (Reuters) According to a Wall Street Journal report, Trump has indicated he could end the war before reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This followed reports that the Iranian President was willing to discuss a ceasefire in exchange for guarantees that attacks would not be repeated. (Reuters)
The Wall Street Journal also reported that the UAE has urged the US and European and Asian military powers to form a coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz by force. The UAE is seeking a U.N. Security Council resolution for the action and suggested the U.S. occupy strategic islands, according to the report.
Even if the Iran conflict were to end soon, Societe Generale bank analysis says :"A global oil supply deficit of around 8.75 MMBPD is expected to persist through April even if the conflict ends by mid-month. Restarting production is particularly complex, requiring safety checks, system repairs and gradual well ramp-ups to avoid reservoir damage. Critical infrastructure such as compressors and treatment plants must also be brought back online, a process industry estimates suggest could take weeks to several months, Societe Generale says." (WSJ)
API Forecast Actual
Crude Oil +0.8/+1.25 +10.263
Gasoline -1.5/-3.0 -3.209
Distillate +0.118/-0.6 +1.04
Cushing n/av +0.784
Runs +0.5/+0.6% n/av
Saudi Arabia is expected to raise their OSP's for May loadings. The May OSP for their flagship Arab Light crude for Asian loadings may rise to premiums of $22.50 to $40.50 a barrel above the average of Dubai and Oman quotes, six sources said in the survey, $20 to $38 a barrel higher than the OSP for April. The expected OSP increase is due to the cash Dubai premium having risen dramatically in March. The Dubai cash price’s premium to swaps averaged $38.30 a barrel in March, up from an average of 90 cents a barrel in February, Reuters data showed.
A Reuters survey showed OPEC's oil production in March fell by 7.50 MMBPD to 21.37 MMBPD. Decreases were seen in Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The largest decline was seen in Iraq, where March output fell to 1.4 MMBPD from 4.5 MMBPD in February. March's output was the lowest seen since June 2020 during the Covid pandemic.
Attacks continue in the Mideast. Drones hit fuel tanks at Kuwait's international airport causing a big blaze. An oil tanker leased to state-owned QatarEnergy was hit by an Iranian cruise missile on Wednesday in Qatari waters, the defense ministry said. (Reuters)
The IEA Chief said that 12 MMBPD of oil supply has been lost due to the Middle East war and that oil losses in April are expected to be twice as high as March. The crisis has hit Asia hardest so far but is expected to spread to Europe and beyond, he added. “The biggest problem today is the lack of jet fuel and diesel,” he said, adding that shortages are already evident in Asia and are likely to reach Europe in April or early May. (www.aa.com.tr)
The US average gasoline price at the pump is up a further 4.6 cents today to $4.064, which is up $1.082 from February 27's price. The average diesel price at the pump, as per AAA data, is up 3.6 cents today to $5.490, which is +$1.733 versus February 27's price.
Energy Market Technicals
Momentums are mixed basis the DC charts for the energies. WTI has positive momentum, RB's is neutral, while that for the ULSD is negative.
WTI spot futures have support at the overnight low at 96.50-96.57 and then at 94.22-94.35. Resistance lies at the overnight high at 103.31-103.45 and then at 105.22.
RB spot futures have a rollover gap above from the April contract's expiration. That gap goes up to 3.2663. Resistance is seen below that at 3.1868-3.1868 and then at 3.2570-3.2596. Support comes in at the overnight low at 3.0718-3.0735 and then at 3.0163-3.0164.
ULSD support for the spot futures lies at 4.0035-4.0054 and then at 3.9496-3.9513. The overnight low is just below that at 3.9470. Resistance is seen at 4.1467-4.1476 and then at 4.2086-4.2103. The overnight high lies just above that at 4.2167.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is down 3.8 cents at $2.846
NG spot futures are also lower--following the energy complex and the TTF European gas futures lower. Shoulder season weather demand is a further weight on NG prices. As one comment reads: "There has been no major change in the underlying narrative or fundamentals to shift sentiment."
The Commodity Weather Group, on Tuesday, said forecasts shifted colder, although above-average temperatures are still expected across the eastern half of the US through April 4. (Barchart)
TTF gas prices are the lowest in 3 weeks. TTF European gas prices have fallen back below Euro 50 amid favorable weather forecasts and hopes of de-escalation in the Iran conflict. ING adds :"Strong wind generation could weigh on gas demand for power, while weaker industrial demand and a lighter maintenance season in Norway add to the bearish tone." The weaker price comes even as storage levels in the EU remain low.
Market News estimates that US Lower 48 states natural gas production is at 109.2 BCF/d, down 3.1 BCF/d overnight.
Tuesday saw the next day Henry Hub cash gas price rise to $3.15, which was a rise of about 25 cents from Monday. The cash futures premium rose to about 23 cents from Monday's differential of about 3 to 3.5 cents. Is the next day HH price rise due to LNG demand? Is it due to the onset of injection season, which starts April 1? Is it due to any maintenance along pipelines in the region? On Tuesday, NGI’s Spot Gas National Average rose by 6.5 cents to $1.710/MMBtu.
Notable in Monday's NG futures settlements on the CME is the drop in the December 26 through February 27 strip. They fell by 15.6 to 16.9 cents versus the May futures falling by only 03. cents and the June contract declining by 2.9 cents. The decline in the winter strip is attributed to ceasefire hopes in the Iran conflict, which will hopefully ease concerns over supply for next winter. This pattern of the next winter strip losing ground to the front has continued today. The Dec 26 through Feb 27 strip is currently down 8.0 to 9.5 cents, versus May being down 3.7 cents.
Technically the selloff of the past 24 hours has turned momentum negative --with key support at 2.803/2.807 close by. Below that support lies at 2.776. Resistance is seen at 2.943 and then at 2.981-2.986.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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