Daily Energy Market Update 6-24-2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are lower again today but well off their overnight lows as President Trump yesterday announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Some issues were heard today regarding whether the ceasefire was still in place.

This morning there was a report that Israel was sending bombers to Iran, with Israel claiming that Iran had violated the ceasefire. President Trump tweeted this morning warning Israel not to attack Iran. And now President Trump has confirmed that Israel will turn its planes around. This last news caused energies to fall off some. Iranian state television reported June 24 that a “ceasefire was imposed”. (Platts) Israel has said that it has agreed to the ceasefire. (Reuters) President Trump declared a “complete and total ceasefire” on Tuesday morning. Trump said both Israel and Iran violated the ceasefire and he was not happy with either country but especially Israel, Reuters reported.  (The Guardian) 

Yesterday's headline says it all :" Oil tanks 4% as Iranian retaliation against U.S. spares energy supply." (August WTI ended the day actually settling down 7.2%) The missile attacks by Iran at U.S. bases in the Mideast eased concerns about oil supply disruptions and thus caused energies to slide on Monday. The missile attacks were said to have been announced by Iran before they were launched. (The Guardian)

The LO/WTI options saw very large open interest increases --especially in the puts. The August put option total rose by 22,020 contracts, September by 24,622 contracts, October by 40,417 contracts and December by 24,539 contracts. The $50 and $60 put strikes saw large increases in the September, October and December contracts. Notable in the August contracts was the increase in the $59 put strike.  One trade seen had the December $60 put purchased for a cost of $2.75 against which the $80 call was sold for $2.60, with delta December futures  purchases at $68.80. The August $60/$59 put spread traded 7 cents. Early in Monday's session, before the sharp pullback in futures prices, the August $82.50/$83 call spread traded 7 cents in volume.  Additionally notable on the CME platform was the trade in the Brent $120 call in February, which traded 27 cents.

CFTC data issued Monday showed money managers left their RB & WTI positions basically unchanged, while reducing their net length in ULSD somewhat. WTI length on ICE/CME combined fell by 785 contracts. RB length fell by 382 contracts. ULSD length fell by 2,774 contracts. The CFTC data was for the week ended Tuesday June 17.

Energy Market Technicals

After the steep drop seen Monday, momentum has turned negative for the energies basis the WTI DC and August RB & ULSD charts.

WTI spot futures see support at 64.19-64.20, which is just below the overnight low of 64.38. Next support is then at 62.45-62.50. Resistance lies at 67.60-67.63, which is just below the overnight high of 67.83. Above that resistance is seen at 69.29-69.33.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--August NG is down 4.4 cents
NG prices are lower today as the forecast is for a return to normal temperatures in the coming days. Production remains strong. And the easing of tension in the Mideast has taken some premium out of the market. That is especially notable in the TTF pricing today. 

Total feedgas flows to U.S. LNG export terminals were estimated to be 14.65 BCF/d on Monday, Bloomberg showed, compared to 13.8 BCF/d on June 22 and an average of 13.64 BCF/d so far in June. The driver of Monday’s gains was Cheniere's Sabine Pass facility finally returning from nearly a month of maintenance. Celsius Energy put Monday's feed gas volume at the highest in almost one month.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states rose to 105.5 BCF/d so far in June from 105.2 BCF/d in May.  U.S. domestic natural gas production was estimated at 106.3 BCF/d on June 23 compared to the 30 day average of 105.66 BCF/d, according to Bloomberg data.

TTF futures prices have gapped lower today as Mideast tension has eased. The gap on the July spot futures goes from 40.200 down to 37.100. Currently the spot July TTF futures are down 4.4 Euro, which is over 10 %. Support is now seen at the 33.825 area and resistance lies at the 38.620 area. Momentum has turned negative and the contract was repelled from the test of the upper bollinger band seen the past several sessions.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC