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- Daily Energy Market Update 6-18-2025
August 1, 2025
August WTI is up37 cents August RB is up 2.48 cents August ULSD is up 1.85 cents
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Crude futures are up having traded both sides of unchanged overnight. Mideast tension is still simmering with Iran's Supreme leader today taking a belligerent tone and some speculation brewing as to a larger US involvement in the conflict. API data was supportive with a very large draw in crude supplies. News wires are using the word "steady" to describe today's crude oil market.
President Trump has demanded that Iran surrender and that his patience with Iran is “wearing thin”. Today, Iran's Supreme leader said that they will not accept any imposed peace or war. (Reuters) A Reuters analyst wrote Tuesday :" Iran’s oil exports appear to have essentially ground to a halt in recent days. Total Iranian crude and condensate oil exports this week are currently forecast to reach 102 MBPD, compared with a weekly average of 1.7 MMBPD so far this year, according to analytics firm Kpler. Critically, exports from Kharg Island from which Iran exports over 90% of its oil, appear to have completely halted since Friday. No tankers were anchored at Kharg Island as of Monday, according to LSEG satellite ship tracking data. However, Iran has roughly 27.5 MMBBL stored in tankers outside the Gulf, according to Kpler data, which would enable it to sell oil for a few weeks." Israel and Iran continued to carry out strikes against each other on Wednesday, as hostilities between the Middle Eastern powers showed few signs of de-escalation. (Investing.com)
On Tuesday, Qatar asked LNG vessels to wait outside the Straits of Hormuz until the day before they are to load amid the escalating tensions. (ING)
API Forecast Actual
Crude Oil -1.6/-2.0 -10.133
Gasoline +0.4/+0.883 -0.202
Distillate -0.3/+0.724 +0.318
Cushing n/av -0.8
Runs -0.3/+0.2% n/av
The crude oil draw of over 10 MMBBL was the largest weekly draw seen since July 2023.
The EIA on Tuesday said that the retail diesel price this week is $3.571, which is up 10 cents from last week. This coincides with the AAA today saying the average diesel price at the pump is $3.595, which is the best price seen on a daily basis since April 11.
Focus on Wednesday is also squarely on the Federal Reserve, which is set to keep interest rates unchanged. But investors are betting that the Fed will wax dovish in the face of worsening economic conditions. (Investing.com)
In an initiating trade seen Tuesday, the WTI October November one month calendar spread puts traded in a butterfly. The +50 cent put and -50 cent put were purchased against selling 2 of the flat puts for a total cost of 10 to 12 cents to the buyer of the wings. The October November WTI futures spread settled at +96 cents. A further initiating trade seen on the CME Tuesday, was the October $65/$60 put spread. The buyer of the $65 out sold 1 1/2 times as many of the $60 puts for a cost of 74 cents with delta futures October purchases at $69.10. Furthermore, the August September 1 month calendar spread put options traded in volume in another initiating trade. The +75 cent put was bought and the +50 cent put was sold at a cost of 5 cents. The WTI August September futures spread settled Tuesday at +$1.70.
Energy Market Technicals
Technically the energies are overbought. The ULSD eked out a small new high for the recent rally overnight.
WTI August futures see support at 71.12-71.18 and resistance at the recent high at 75.50.
ULSD for August sees support at 2.4496-2.4504 and then at 2.4277-2.4286 via data from the 60 minute August chart. The resistance seen via DC data lies at 2.5275-2.5289.
August RB support comes in at 2.2416-2.2420. Resistance lies at 2.2984 and then at 2.3145.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 6.1 cents
NG spot futures have risen to a fresh 2 month high today. The TTF and JKM prices overseas have also risen to their best value in months as worries over traffic in the Straits of Hormuz support those markets. The NG futures are also to some degree supported by those concerns, but are more so being boosted by the prospect for very hot weather in the Eastern portion of the U.S. next week.
The Commodity Weather Group said Tuesday that forecasts shifted hotter for much of the eastern half of the US for June 22-26. (MSN)
U.S. domestic natural gas production rose to a new high for the month at 107.38 BCF/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg data. Pipeline flows show a drop to 105.20 bBC/d today, but the data could still be revised.
TTF futures prices have risen today to their best value since April 3 as concerns over traffic through the Straits of Hormuz support the market. “Qatar, which makes up around 20% of global LNG trade, uses this route to export LNG. There is no alternative route.” (ING) Technically the TTF futures have positive momentum that is not overbought. There is a gap to fill above the market from 40.500 to 40.840 Euro. Currently the spot TTF futures have a high today of 40.420 Euro. The contract has been riding the upper bollinger band the past 4 sessions amid the heightened Mideast tension.
The EIA gas storage data to be released today at 12 PM EST is seen as a build of 98 BCF as per the WSJ & Reuters surveys. This compares to last year's and the 5 year average builds of 72 BCF.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 98.8 BCF/d this week to 102.0 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were down a total of 0.1 BCF/d from those seen Friday.
On Tuesday, on the CME, in NG Calendar Spread Options (CSO) options, 3,000 contracts of the August/September -5 cent/+5 cent fence traded. The +5 cent call was bought and the -5 cent put was sold at a cost to the call buyer of the fence of 1.2 cents. Given open interest data from the CME, this was a position that was initiated. The Aug /Sept futures spread settled Tuesday at +1.6 cents. Nearly 5,000 contracts traded Tuesday in the July $3.70 / $3.55 put spread with the buyer of the $3.70 put paying 4.8 cents, with delta July futures buys at $3.83. The open interest for the $3.55 puts fell, while that for the $3.70 put rose.
Technically NG has positive momentum that is not overbought. Support for the spot futures lies at the overnight low at 3.813-3.814 and then at 3.719-3.720. Resistance at 3.930-3.939 has been tested this morning with a high of 3.933. Above that resistance lies at 4.045-4.050.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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