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- Daily Energy Market Update 6-17-2025
August WTI is up $1.30 August RB is up 3.62 cents August ULSD is up 5.39 cents
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are higher today as tension simmers further in the Mideast.
Israel and Iran attacked each other for a fifth straight day on Tuesday, raising the risk of further unrest and the potential disruption of oil and gas supplies from the Middle East. (Reuters) Additional tension arose from President Trump calling for the evacuation of Tehran, citing Iran’s rejection of a deal to curb nuclear weapons development. On Monday, there were reports that Iran had signaled that it wanted to deescalate hostilities with Israel and was willing to restart nuclear talks as long as the U.S. doesn’t join the Israeli attack. (ING)
In its monthly oil report released on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency revised its world oil demand estimate downwards by 20 MBPD from last month's forecast, and increased the supply estimate by 200 MBPD to 1.8 MMBPD, partly due to OPEC+ raising output. Total world oil production in 2025 is seen at 104.9 MMBPD. Oil production growth in 2026 is seen at +1.1 MMBPD. World demand will rise by 720 MBPD this year and by 740 MBPD in 2026, the IEA forecasts. Refining margins in May were at their highest levels since 1Q24. However, the rally in crude prices in early June squeezed profitability, they added. In the absence of a major disruption, oil markets in 2025 look well supplied, the IEA concludes. (Reuters/iea.gov)
The IEA forecasts that global oil demand will keep growing until around the end of this decade despite peaking in top importer China in 2027, as cheaper gasoline and slower electric vehicle adoption in the United States support consumption. Oil demand will peak at 105.6 MMBPD by 2029. At the same time, global production capacity is forecast to rise by more than 5 MMBPD to 114.7 MMBPD by 2030. (Reuters)
On trade, President Trump said on Tuesday that he still planned to send out letters to negotiating countries on the final U.S. demands before a 90-day reprieve on ’reciprocal’ tariffs expires early next month. The European Union was not yet offering a ’fair deal,’ he said, though there was a chance of a deal in the ’tough’ talks with Japan. (Reuters)
U.S. oil production is set for a slight drop this year amid weaker prices, Vitol's CEO said Tuesday. “With slightly lower prices, we're beginning to see some impact on investment and production,” he said. (Oil Price)
On Monday, Occidental Petroleum's CEO said oil prices would go lower if the Iran Israel conflict stays the same. He added that oil prices could return to pre-conflict levels. He also said that his company needs a $55/bbl oil price to grow output "slightly" .(Bloomberg)
In the Brent crude options on Monday, the December 100 dollar call was bought versus selling of the 45 dollar put for a cost of 40 cents with delta December futures sales at $69.90. December Brent futures settled at $69.93.
The CME will be observing the Juneteenth holiday Thursday June 19 with reduced trading hours. The market will close from 2:30 PM EST until 6 PM EST Thursday. The market will open Wednesday as per usual at 6 PM EST and close Friday at 5 PM EST -as per usual.
Energy Market Technicals
Technically, the energies are having inside trading days as today's prices are within the ranges seen the past 2 days when those ranges were very wide. Momentum is nearly overbought for the energies basis the daily charts.
WTI for August sees support at 68.92-69.00. Resistance comes in at 73.62-73.77. The upper bollinger band lies at 72.85.
ULSD is the most overbought of the energies and is testing its upper bollinger band on the DC and August daily charts. Resistance for the August ULSD lies at yesterday's high at 2.4572. resistance above that from DC chart data comes in at 2.4898-2.4913. Support lies at the overnight low at 2.3511-2.3532.
RB for August sees resistance at 2.2699 and then at 2.2926-2.2950. Support is seen at 2.2000-2.2015 and then at 2.1705-2.1714.
Gasoil spot futures are also testing the upper bollinger band basis the DC chart. That band lies at 720.75. Resistance above is seen at 738.75. Support lies at 697.25-697.75.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas-- NG is up 4.1 cents
NG futures are higher again today as very hot temperatures are set for the Eastern portion of the U.S. in the 5 to 10 day forecast. The ongoing Iran Israel conflict is also seen underpinning natural gas prices.
The Weather channel forecasts NY City to see highs of 99 degrees on June 23 and 24. That is 15 degrees over the average high. Washington, D.C. is set to see temperatures rise to 98 to 100 degrees in the next week. Those highs are 9 to 11 degrees above normal.
Qatar confirmed Tuesday that its gas production in the North Dome gas field remains steady, following an Israeli strike on the field Saturday. Iran partially suspended production at the field Saturday. (Investing.com)
On Monday, on the CME, 10,000 of the October $4.60 calls traded at a cost between 22.7 and 25.3 cents. These trades were initiating as CME data shows open interest in that strike rising by over 10,000 contracts. Additionally on Monday, in the July October LN/NG 3 month CSO options, 3,000 contracts of the minus 15 cent call were bought against selling of the minus 10 cent call for a cost of 1.7 cents. As per CME data, the -15 cent call open interest rose, while the - 10 cent call open interest fell. Also in the July October 3 month CSO, the minus 15 cent puts traded 3.1 cents. Here too the open interest fell. The July October spread settled at minus 15.0 cents.
Renewables remain cost-competitive in the United States despite rising natural gas competitiveness, according to Lazard’s 2025 “Levelized Cost of Energy+” report, which estimates combined cycle natural gas costs at $0.048/kWh to $0.107/kWh, solar at $0.038/kWh to $0.212/kWh, and nuclear at $0.141/kWh to $0.220/kWh. “This year’s report shows sharp declines for battery energy storage systems across hybrid and standalone storage projects,” said Lazard. (pv-magazine)
Rising tensions in the Middle East will accelerate natural gas negotiations between Russia and China, with a decision likely this year, the head of a think-tank that advises the Russian government on China told Reuters. This deal is capable of guaranteeing China an uninterrupted supply of energy. (Reuters)
Technically NG spot futures have positive momentum basis the DC chart as resistance at 3.840 has been tested with that being the high. Resistance is then seen above at 3.930-3.939. Support comes in at 3.675-3.679 via the 60 minute July chart.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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