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- Daily Energy Market Update 6-16-2025
August WTI is down $1.27 August RB is down 1.46 cents August ULSD is up 0.20 cents
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Crude oil prices have retreated today as there has been no impact on output so far from Israel's attacks on Iran's oil and gas infrastructure, nor on exports from the region. No oil flows have been stopped despite the heightened tension in the Mideast. There are currently double tops on the spot crude oils. .
The Iranian Foreign Minister said Saturday that there would be no nuke talks Sunday with the U.S. (WSJ)
OPEC, in their monthly report issued today, kept their demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at +1.29 MMBPD for 2025 and +1.28 MMBPD for 2026. They also kept their Non OPEC supply growth for this year unchanged at +800 MBPD, but lowered their 2026 Non OPEC supply growth by 70 MBPD to +730 MBPD on the back of a lower US supply growth forecast versus their prior estimate, reflecting lower capital spending and a slowdown in drilling activity. OPEC crude output rose by 183 MBPD in May to 27.02 MMBPD, OPEC says, citing secondary sources. The rise was mostly due to Saudi output rising by 177 MBPD. OPEC+'s next meeting is currently scheduled for July 6, when members are expected to agree to another large supply increase. (WSJ)
China's crude oil throughput declined by 1.8% in May from a year earlier to the lowest level since August, official data showed on Monday, as maintenance at both state-owned and independent refineries curbed operations. The refinery run rate for May was 13.92 MMBPD, down from 14.12 MMBPD in April. The run rate is seen rising in June as maintenance is seen ending in late May/early June. (Reuters)
The Baker Hughes oil rig count showed a drop of 2 units in Friday's report. The Permian basin saw a drop of 2 units in the Friday report.
CFTC data seen Friday showed money managers added length in WTI and ULSD, while reducing length in RB. WTI net length rose by 15,157 contracts on ICE/CME combined, mostly through shorts being covered on the CME. ULSD net length rose by 9,790 contracts, mostly also though shorts being covered. RB net length fell by 9,030 contracts as longs were sold. Speculators increased their net longs in ICE Brent by 29,159 lots. The data was for the week ended Tuesday June 10.
Today is the last trading day for the July WTI / LO options.
The CME will be observing shorter trading hours for the Juneteenth holiday on Thursday. Trading will stop from 2:30 to 6 PM EST. The CME's Globex trading platform will otherwise its usual times with the session's open at 6 PM Wednesday evening and close at 5 PM Friday.
Energy Market Technicals
There are a few technical indicators that should give the bulls a bit of a pause. There is a double top on the WTI & Brent spot futures from Friday/today. Volume on Friday for the energies was very heavy, suggesting possible interim highs. There are mean reversions setups from Friday's closes. The highs for today's session were seen on the opening on Sunday evening. Momentum for the energies basis the August daily charts look poised to turn downward from overbought conditions.
Volume Friday for WTI futures on the CME was over 3.5 million contracts. Highs and lows are punctuated by heavy volumes. The double tops for spot WTI lie at 77.62 / 77.49, for spot Brent they lie at 78.50 / 78.32. For August WTI support lies at 68.92-69.00 and then at 67.06-67.11. Resistance is seen at 71.92-72.00 and then at 73.62-73.77. The overnight high for the August WTI is 75.50. The daily August chart's upper bollinger band intersects at 72.95.
August RB support lies at 2.1705-2.1714 and then at 2.1462-2.1469. Resistance is seen at 2.2370-2.2380 and then at 2.2699. The high of today's session is 2.2984. The daily chart's upper bollinger band for August intersects at 2.2179.
August ULSD sees support at 2.3044-2.3065 and then at 2.2694-2.2698. Resistance comes in at Friday's high of 2.3781 and then at 2.4026-2.4028. The high today so far is 2.4572. The August daily chart upper bollinger band intersects at 2.3421.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 8.9 cents
NG spot futures are higher this morning as heat is seen returning to portions of the U.S. in the 10 day forecast. Also supportive is a partial suspension of gas production in Iran, with Mideast tensions supporting global gas prices.
Iran has partially suspended gas production at the world's biggest gas field after an Israeli strike caused a fire there on Saturday, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, in what would be the first Israeli strike on Iran's oil and gas sector. The South Pars field is responsible for the lion's share of gas production in Iran, the world's third largest gas producer after the United States and Russia. Iran shares the field with Qatar. (Reuters)
Chicago will see temperatures rise 8-10 degrees over normal in the period between June 21 and 23, while NY will see highs 9 to 13 degrees above normal between June 23 and 25.
Additionally likely supporting TTF prices today, the European Commission plans to propose to the European Union a ban on all new contracts for the supply of Russian gas based on trade law. This initiative aims to bypass the veto imposed by Hungary and Slovakia. Short-term agreements for the import of pipeline gas and LNG from Russia must be terminated by 2026, while long-term contracts must end by January 1, 2028. This initiative emerged following last month’s announcement of the European Commission’s plan to completely stop imports of Russian oil and gas by 2027. (Financial Times)
Notable is the September TTF option trade seen from Friday's activity on the CME. The Euro 33/38/43 call butterfly was bought for a total cost of 1.3 Euro with delta futures sales in September TTF at 38 .00 Euro. The September TTF is trading just below 40 Euro today, and is trading at its best value since April 4th.
Asian gas prices have risen over the past few session, supported by rising temperatures in the region and by the tension in the Mideast. The spot August JKM futures settled Friday at their best level since the beginning of April. August JKM futures settled Friday at $13.385/MMbtu, up from a settlement of $12.50 seen Monday June 9.
In the CFTC COT report seen Friday, money managers added new shorts raising their net short total by 31,656 contracts to 84,420 contracts. The data was for the week ended Tuesday June 10.
In the LN/NG options, the 1 month October November calendar spread puts traded. The -50 cent put was bought against which the -60 cent put was sold for a cost of 2.2 cents. Based on open interest data from the CME, these were a closing trade for the -50 cent put and an opening trade for the - 60 cent put.
The EIA's gas storage data will be issued Wednesday at Noon EST due to Thursday's Juneteenth national holiday. Initia estimates we have seen are calling for a build of 96 to 102 BCF. This compares to last year's and the 5 year average build of 72 BCF. A build under 100 BCF would break the 7 week streak of 100+ BCF builds seen prior to this week's report.
The Baker Hughes gas rig count showed a drop of 1 unit in Friday's report.
There is a gap from over the weekend for the spot NG futures that goes from the Friday high of 3.623 to today's session low of 3.650. Technically, NG spot futures look poised to see the DC chart's momentum turn upward. Resistance for the spot NG futures at 3.747-3.750 was tested with a high overnight of 3.760. Above that resistance is seen at 3.815-3.817. Support comes in at the gap area at 3.623-3.626. Below that support lies at 3,527-3.531.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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