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- Daily Energy Market Update 6-13-2025
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WTI is up $5.71 RB is up 9.72 cents ULSD is up 13.80 cents
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are up sharply as Israel launched several attacks on Iran targeting key officials and Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran has sent drones against Israel in retaliation. Worries over supply disruptions for crude supplies out of the Mideast have seen Brent & WTI lead the rally overnight.
Early Friday morning, local time, Israel launched dozens of strikes against Iran and declared a state of emergency, according to the Israeli Defense Minister. Iran launched retaliatory drone strikes against Israel. Iran has confirmed the deaths of the top general of Iran's Revolutionary Guard as well as several top scientists. Israel attacked the city of Natanz, where Iran's largest nuclear enrichment facility lay. (ABC News/NBC News) Iran's President has vowed a "legitimate and powerful response" will make Israel regret its foolish act. (Reuters) Iran is pumping 3.3 MMBPD of crude oil and exporting in the neighborhood of 1.7 MMBPD. Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz. (ING)
President Trump is urging Iranian officials to strike a nuclear deal with the United States, suggesting the drawn-out negotiations between the two sides are what caused Israel to launch a preemptive strike. He then issued a stark warning that there will be more destruction if there isn't a deal signed soon. “Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb, and we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table. " President Trump told Fox news. (ABC News) This morning President Trump told ABC News that the Israeli attack on Iran was excellent. He said further that Iran got hit hard and there's more to come. (Bloomberg)
News seen Thursday boosted crude prices near midday. Israel is considering taking military action against Iran in the coming days, according to three sources familiar with the situation cited by ABC news.
Further news on Thursday showed that " Iran said it will inaugurate a new uranium-enrichment facility in response to a decision by the United Nations atomic watchdog to censure the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program." An Iranian spokesperson said at the time : " This will mean a significant increase in the production of enriched materials,”. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) board of governors approved a resolution in Vienna on Thursday that deemed Iran in non-compliance of its international obligations. Iran’s Foreign Minister said the IAEA resolution censuring Iran “adds to the complexities” of efforts to strike a deal with the U.S. (Bloomberg)
Chinese crude distillation unit capacity usage is seen rising this week. CDU rates are likely to break 70% and reach 71.02% in the week to June 12, boosting China’s gasoline and gasoil production. Capacity utilisation rates averaged 69.74% in the week to June 5, up 2.58 percentage points on the week and 2.3 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. This is thus the first week that utilisation rates were higher on the year since the start of 2025. And OilChem analysis says that June will probably be the best performing month since Q1 2024. (Market News)
Comments seen today in the face of the overnight attacks on Iran read as follows: "The question now is whether this is a typical geopolitical knee-jerk reaction from markets, which results in lots of hype with no delivery. Or if the US really is on the brink of navigating a Middle East war." Goldman Sachs said today : Israel-Iran Escalations Won’t Disrupt Middle East Oil Supply. Goldman added that one scenario is for :"Potential damage to Iran’s export infrastructure cuts Iranian supply by 1.75 MMBPD for 6 months before gradually recovering. Extra OPEC+ production makes up half peak Iranian shortfall. Goldman adds : An interruption to flows via the Straits of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply) is unlikely. Goldman stresses that upside price risk is limited due to OPEC+ raising production for longer and the risk of a U.S. recession remains.
Energy Market Technicals
One colleague wrote today that : "Price action is likely to be volatile and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position."
WTI spot futures have resistance at 75.15-75.21 and then at the overnight high at 77.62-77.86. Support lies at 71.85-71.94 and then at 70.59-70.67. The overnight low is 68.49. The upper bollinger band on the DC chart lies at 71.41. The spot futures have moved over the 200 day moving average on the DC chart that lies at 68.69.
ULSD for July sees support at 2.2800-2.2819 and then at 2.2541-2.2560. Resistance lies at 2.3722-2.3744. The overnight high is just below that at 2.3709. Next resistance above is seen at 2.3978-2.4000. The DC chart upper bollinger band lies at 2.2777. The spot futures have moved over the 200 day moving average on the DC chart that lies at 2.2375.
RB July futures see support at 2.1926-2.1950 and then at the overnight low at 2.1523-2.1552. Resistance is seen at the overnight high at 2.3025-2.3045. Above that resistance is seen at 2.3447. The DC chart upper bollinger band lies at 2.2126.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 5.1 cents
NG futures are higher on the back of the sharp rise in energy prices, although the rise in NG is muted due to the ample supply of gas in storage in the U.S. and the fact that NG futures are a more domestically U.S. based price mechanism versus the global nature of the other energies. But, European natural gas prices are much higher as the Mideast is a key source for much of foreign supply.
NaGasWeather.com said Thursday that forecasts shifted warmer to hotter for much of the southern two-thirds of the US for June 19-26, potentially boosting natural gas demand. (Nasdaq) Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated today at 70.28 BCF/d compared to the previous five-year average around 66.4 BCF/d for this time of year. (Bloomberg)
U.S. domestic natural gas production is estimated down 0.945 BCF/d at 105.40 BCF/d today compared to a 30-day average of 106.4 BCF/d, according to Bloomberg data, although the daily figure could still be revised later in the day.
TTF futures prices have gapped higher today in the face of the Mideast attacks. “So far TTF prices are still contained, but there is a higher risk premium now back in the market", as per one European bank analyst. Traders are concerned about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly a fifth of global LNG passes through. “Qatar, Oman and the UAE operate roughly 18% of the world’s LNG supply, so any disruptions to flows from especially Qatar could easily see TTF prices back in the EUR100/MWh,” the bank analyst adds. (WSJ) There are further supportive elements for European natural gas prices. Wind power generation is expected to decline over the weekend in northwestern Europe, reducing the supply of renewable energy. In France, concerns are mounting over a potential reduction in nuclear output after the national regulator reported early signs of possible stress corrosion in a reactor. Meanwhile, unseasonably hot weather across much of Europe is driving up electricity demand for air conditioning. (Trading Economics) Currently TTF spot futures are printing near Euro 38/Mwh (= $12.80/MMBTU) The gap seen today goes from 36.650 to 36.900 Euro. The DC chart upper bollinger is being tested. Initial upside resistance is seen at the 40 Euro area and then at Euro 44. Support comes in at the 34.25 Euro area.
The EIA gas storage data showed a build of 109 BCF, which was basically in line with forecasts. Total storage rose to 2.707 TCF. This is +139 BCF/+5.41% versus the 5 year average, but -256 BCF/-8.64% versus last year's level. Celsius Energy is forecasting another 100+ BCF injection for next week's EIA gas storage data. They also see a further widening of the storage surplus to the 5 year average in the weeks to follow.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect natural-gas storage to return to a deficit over the summer, pushing prices above $5 per million British thermal units in the second half of the year. They expect underground storage to end October at 3.68 trillion cubic feet, slightly below the five-year average, and fall to 1.4 trillion cubic feet at the end of March 2026, or 22% below the five-year average. (WSJ)
Warmer weather and additional natural gas-fired power plants are fueling Mexico’s growing natural gas import needs. Pipeline exports to Mexico have averaged 7.5 BCF/d over the past 30 days, up 0.5 BCF/d from the same period last year, according to Wood Mackenzie. June is on track for an all-time monthly record, Wood Mackenzie adds. NGI
Technically NG spot futures still have negative momentum. Overnight prices rose to the high of the session in reaction to the news of the Israeli attacks on Iran. Resistance above is seen at 3.656-3.662. Support comes in at the low of the week at 3.453-3.454.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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