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- Daily Energy Market Update 6-12-2025
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WTI is down $1.08 RB is down 3.45 cents ULSD is down 2.80 cents
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies have had large swings in prices overnight--at first gapping higher. The highs seen were made on the opening of the session last night at 6 PM EST. WTI has fallen back over $2 from the overnight high as the market reassesses the risk seen from Mideast tension after yesterday's headlines of the US moving personnel from the Mideast. Tariff talk has been ramped up by President Trump.
One analyst cites technical resistance having been hit in the rally, adding that " some market participants are betting on Sunday's U.S.-Iran meeting resulting in reduced tension."
Energy prices rose quite a lot Wednesday aided by worries over Mideast tension. The U.S. embassy in Iraq is preparing for an ordered evacuation due to heightened security risks in the region, an Iraqi security official and a U.S. source said on Wednesday. (Reuters) The U.S. military is set to allow families of service members in Bahrain to temporarily depart the country because of heightened tensions in the region, a U.S. official told Reuters on Wednesday. President Trump said the U.S. was moving personnel because the Middle East "could be a dangerous place". Iran and the U.S. are set to meet Sunday for nuclear talks. On Wednesday, Britain's maritime agency warned that increased tensions in the region may lead to an escalation in military activity that could impact shipping in critical waterways. (Reuters)
President Trump said he would send letters to trading partners in about two weeks, informing them that the US was imposing unilateral tariffs on them. "You can take it, or you can leave it," he said of how trading partners could respond to the tariffs. He said the US could not hold trade negotiations with "150 plus" countries. (Business Insider) There are rumors that the EU will hardly ink a deal before the July deadline, and Trump has threatened other Asian nations with fresh tariffs, as per a source quoted in Platts.
The DOE data seen Wednesday showed that over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 MMBPD, 13.3% less than the same four-week period last year. Crude supplies drew by 3.644 MMBBL to 432.4 MMBBL, thus pushing the deficit versus the 5 year average to -39.1 MMBBL, a 52-week high. (Celsius Energy). Crude supplies are 8% below the 5 year average.(EIA.gov) Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.5 MMBPD over the past four weeks, down by 5.9% from the same period last year.(EIA.gov) On the week, product demand improved. Distillate demand rose by 225 MBPD to 3.376 MMBPD. But, this still lagged the prior 2 years demand of 3.574 and 3.649 MMBPD. Gasoline demand rose by 907 MBPD to a healthy figure of 9.170 MMBPD. This beat last year's demand of 9.040 MMBPD, but was just below 2303 demand of 9.193 MMBPD.
Tightness in crude supplies was evidenced by the sharp jump in the forward curve in WTI. The July 2025/January 2026 spread rose Wednesday by $1.05 to settle at $4.63. Overnight the spread rose to a high of $4.93. Our suggestion of a peak at +20 cents in the December 2025 versus December 2026 spread Tuesday was incorrect. The spread rose by 86 cents Wednesday to settle at +71 cents. Overnight, the December 2025 December 2026 rose to a high of +95 cents. The upper bollinger here was at +44 cents at the close of business Wednesday, thus creating a mean reversion set up. The bollinger band currently lies at +63 cents as the spread is printing +36 cents.
The EU's proposal set forth this week for sanctions against Russia included a ban on all fuel products imported into Europe based on Russian crude oil. This proposal will be very hard to find approval from all 27 EU nations, as several rely on gas and oil products, notably Hungary and Slovakia. (Hellenic Shipping/Politico)
ARA gasoil stocks were hovering near their lowest since February 2024 in the latest data released on June 5, as local distributors have turned to ARA stocks amid prolonged maintenance at regional refineries, according to Vortexa. This has clearly aided the front spread in Gasoil (June/July) widen of late. June futures expire today.
China’s onshore crude stockpiling rate exceeded 1m b/d for a second consecutive month in May but could moderate in June, Vortexa said. The rate could rise again in July and August with the arrival of cheaper OPEC barrels.
Open interest from the CME suggests that part of the rally seen Wednesday was due to short covering with WTI open interest falling a total of 21,654 contracts, with the July contract seeing a decline of 20,969 contracts. RB open interest fell by a total of 7,941 contracts, with July spot futures seeing a drop of 9,901 contracts.
Energy Market Technicals
Technicals
Technically there are mean reversions from yesterday's closes in WTI, Brent and ULSD. The upper bollinger bands were tested again overnight in all the energies. The fall back in prices today is turning momentum negative on the crude oil DC charts.
WTI spot futures see support at 66.15-66.21 and then at 65,22-65.29. Resistance comes in at the yesterday's and today's highs at 68.36-68.37 and 69.29-69.33. The upper bollinger band on the DC chart intersects at 67.87 currently.
Brent spot futures see the DC chart bollinger lying at 69.52. Resistance lies at yesterday's high of 70.83. Support comes in at 66.47-66.48.
ULSD for July sees support at 2.1337-2.1356. Resistance at 2.2174 was tested overnight with the high of 2.2205. The upper bollinger band on the DC chart lies at 2.2093.
July RB sees support at 2.1093-2.1100 and then at the prior 2 sessions' lows at 2.0771-2.0779. Resistance is seen at 2.1599-2.1610 and then at the overnight high at 2.1898-2.1926. The DC chart's upper bollinger lies at 2.1745.
With the June Gasoil expiring today, we are showing technical information for the July contract. There is resistance at 655.00. Support lies at 622.25-622.75. The upper bollinger band on the July daily gasoil chart intersects at 649.75.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 8.9 cents
NG futures are higher as feed gas demand for LNG export has improved and the forecast is for temperatures to rise after June 16, as per the NOAA forecast. The market seems to have built in the large storage build expected today.
Forecaster Atmospheric G2 stated on Wednesday that above-normal temperatures are expected to move from the West into the central and eastern US from June 16 to 20. (MSN) The NOAA 6-14 forecast still shows above normal temperatures across most of the US throughout.
Total feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are estimated up 0.379 BCF/d today to 14.56 BCF/d, Bloomberg shows. Supply to Cameron LNG is recovering back toward normal levels suggesting the end of maintenance but Sabine Pass works are expected until late-June. Yesterday, Reuters reported that the average feed gas volume in June had fallen to 13.8 BCF/d, from May's level of 15.0 BCF/d. Looking out further, LNG demand is seen rising later this summer. Venture Global LNG Inc. last week clinched two key approvals from federal regulators for its Plaquemines export facility, meaning another boost in Gulf Coast feed gas demand is imminent this summer. Feed gas nominations to the facility on the Gator Express pipeline increased in mid-May, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data, indicating the trains began processing gas consistently. (NGI)
The EIA gas storage data is seen as a build of 106 to 110 BCF. This would be the 7th straight injection of over 100 BCF, which would tie a record from 2014. Last year saw an increase of 77 BCF and the 5 year average build for the week is 87 BCF. May saw a record amount of gas injected at 497 BCF. (Reuters)
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 98.6 BCF/d this week to 100.0 BCF/d next week. The estimates were a total of 0.7 BCF/d below those seen Monday.
There are several notable options trades in the NG/LN contract on the CME from Wednesday's activity. 4,000 contracts of the August $6.00 calls traded 1.1 cents. The July/October -25 cent put was bought versus selling of the -5 cent call for a cost of 0.9 cents. That looks to be an initiating position as open interest rose for each option. Further in the July/October 3 month options, the -10 cent call saw open interest rise by 8,450 contracts--with trades seen at a cost of 0.7/0.8/and 0.9 cents to the buyer. Additionally, the July October 3 month -10 cent call was purchased against selling of the Flat call for a cost of 0.8 cents. But, the October January 3 month -$1.25 put saw open interest decline with a trade seen at a cost of 15.6 cents to the buyer.
Technically NG spot futures support is seen at the lows of Tuesday and today at 3.515 / 3.510. Below that is yesterday's low of 3.453, which is possible support. Resistance is seen at 3.656-3.662 and then at 3.747-3.750. Momentum remains negative on the NG DC chart.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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