- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update 6-10-2025
In partnership with
WTI is up 43 cents RB is up 1.35 cents ULSD is up 1.09 cents
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are higher on increased optimism for an easing of tension in the ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China. Further support for prices is seen coming from the talks between Iran and the U.S. on a nuclear deal stalling.
Trade talks between the U.S. and China appear to be progressing, with discussions set to continue today. The U.S. appears willing to ease some tech export restrictions in return for China easing limits on rare earth exports. (ING) U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick described negotiations so far as “fruitful”.
The UN said that Iran’s stockpiling of almost weapons grade uranium needs to be monitored and addressed. The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), on Monday issued a warning statement that the agency has not only long been barred access to old and new nuclear sites, but that Iran has scrubbed locations in an apparent move to cover up its activities. (Fox News) President Trump has made clear that the two sides remained at odds over whether the country would be allowed to continue enriching uranium on Iranian soil. (Reuters)
OPEC oil output rose in May, a Reuters survey found, although the increase was limited as Iraq pumped below target to compensate for earlier overproduction and Saudi Arabia and the UAE made smaller hikes than allowed. OPEC output in May rose by 150 MBPD to 26.75 MMBPD. Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were allowed to raise output by 310 MBPD. The actual increase by the five was 180 MBPD, as the compensation cuts limited the increase. The Saudis raised output by 130 MBPD, but that was still 100 MBPD below their allotted quota. While the Reuters survey and April data provided by OPEC's secondary sources show they are pumping close to the quotas, other estimates, such as those of the International Energy Agency, say they are pumping significantly more. (Reuters)
Saudi Aramco will ship about 47 MMBBL to China in July, a tally of allocations to Chinese refiners showed, 1 MMBBL less than June's allotted volume, Reuters reported. Quantum Commodities suggests that the lower export level may be due to Saudi Arabia keeping more barrels for their own domestic use. Another comment said :""The Saudi allocations could be an early sign that OPEC+'s unwind may not actually mean that much additional supply,".
The European Commission is planning to propose a fresh set of sanctions against Moscow, which includes a reduction in the Russian oil price cap and a prohibition on using the Nord Stream infrastructure, according to a report by the Financial Times. The proposed sanctions package will see the current oil price cap, which stands at $60 per barrel, reduced to $45 per barrel. The European Commission’s proposal is yet to be approved and will require the agreement of all EU member states.
The EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) will be released today. The OPEC and IEA monthly reports will be issued next Monday and Tuesday respectively.
Open interest data from the CME shows WTI open interest fell by a total of 10,655 contracts, as the July contract saw open interest fall by 23,592 contracts. The July decrease we see as being not only related to rolling of contracts, but also as short covering.
Energy Market Technicals
Technically momentum for the WTI is getting near overbought on the DC chart. Momentum for the RB & ULSD remain positive and is not yet overbought. Mean reversions are in place from Monday's closes above the upper bollinger band in WTI, Brent and Gasoil basis their DC charts.
WTI spot futures have risen to their best value since April 4th. The upper bollinger band lies currently at 65.74. Resistance above lies at 66.88-66.90. Support is seen at 64.19-64.20.
Brent spot futures see the DC chart's upper bollinger band lying at 67.37. Resistance is seen at 68.65 and support lies at 65.67-65.68.
RB for July sees support at 2.0674-2.0681. Resistance lies at 2.1230-2.1246 and then at 2.1403-2.1419.
July ULSD sees support at 2.1160-2.1166 and resistance at 2.1820-2.1828.
Not only do the spot Gasoil futures have a mean reversion basis the DC chart, but the front month spread (June/July) has also risen above its upper bollinger band. Momentum for the spot futures on the DC chart is getting near overbought. The upper bollinger band for the spot futures on the DC chart intersects at 648.61. ING reports that open interest in ICE gasoil has hit record levels. Long open interest from swap dealers remains near record highs, suggesting a potential increase in consumer hedging.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is down 4.5 cents
Natural gas spot futures are now lower after falling 15 cents Monday. Several reasons were given for Monday's fall : increased gas production, profit taking, the storage surplus building and "meaningful heat being elusive". But, production is said to have fallen today, while demand is seen over seasonal average, although it is down on the day.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has held at 105.2 BCF/d so far in June, the same as in May. But the June average estimate was up from LSEG's estimate seen Friday of 104.8 BCF/d. Pipeline flows currently show U.S. domestic natural gas production down 1.401 BCF/d at 104.18 BCF/d today compared to an average of 105.89 BCF/d over the previous week, according to Bloomberg data, although the data could still be revised.
Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated back down slightly by 1.03 BCF/d today at 69.3 BCF/d, but still well above the 30-day average of 66.5 BCF/d and the previous five-year average around 66.7 BCF/d for the time of year. (Bloomberg)
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 13.8 BCF/d so far in June, down from 15.0 BCF/d in May. (Reuters)
Initial estimates for this week's EIA gas storage data are calling for a build of 105 to 114 BCF. This compares to last year's build of 77 BCF and the 5 year average build of 87 BCF. Another 100+ injection this week would be the 7th in a row, tying a record from 2014.
The cash futures differential shrank considerably Monday. Henry Hub next day cash versus the front month futures was seen at a discount of roughly 45 cents. That is versus the differential over 90 cents seen late last week. The large differential was seen as an incentive for storage operators to sell the futures and buy the cash to lock in costs and as a possible speculative trade as very often the cash and futures are seen converging the closer the futures get to expiration.
Of note are options trades from the CME from Friday that were executed in the TTF contract. One was buying of the July Euro 40 call for a cost of .585 Euro against selling a delta amount of July futures at Euro 36.60. Secondly, we saw trades in the August and September Euro 35/40/45 call butterfly. The buyer of the wings ( the 35 and 45 calls) paid a total of Euro 1.07 ( with selling of two of the 40 cent calls) and sold delta futures in each of August and September at Euro 36.75. The August TTF and September TTF futures today are printing 35.315 and 35.695 Euro/Mwh respectively.
A trade was seen in volume Monday on the CME in the LN / NG 1 month Sept/Oct options. The flat call was sold versus the -15 cent put being bought for a cost of 1.7 cents. The NG Sept/Oct futures spread settled Monday at minus 9.7 cents. Another trade in volume seen Monday was in the August $4.50 / $5.00 call spread trade, which traded at a cost of 5.2 cents, with delta futures sales in August at $3.71. The LN / NG July October 3 month calendar spread -10 cent put option traded 7.1 cents Monday in large volume of 3,000 contracts, while the -20 cent puts traded 1.9 cents in half that amount. The July/October spread settled Monday at -16.2 cents. Each of the July October put trades look to be liquidation, as open interest in those strikes fell in the traded amounts as per CME data.
Momentum basis the DC chart has turned negative. Initial support at 3.581-3.583 has been tested this morning with a low of 3.575. Below that support lies at 3.527-3.531. Resistance lies at 3.747-3.750 and then at 3.815-3.817.
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
What Top Execs Read Before the Market Opens
The Daily Upside was founded by investment professionals to arm decision-makers with market intelligence that goes deeper than headlines. No filler. Just concise, trusted insights on business trends, deal flow, and economic shifts—read by leaders at top firms across finance, tech, and beyond.
Reply