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- August WTI Brent arb 6-09-2025
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Liquidity’s Overview
The spread between WTI and Brent crude futures narrowed to its tightest level since September 2023 on Friday as U.S. prices rose on a sliding rig count and Canadian wildfires that cut supplies, analysts and traders said. The spread between the two crude benchmarks narrowed to as little as $2.78 a barrel during the session on Friday. A discount of $4 per barrel is typically considered the level that encourages U.S. exports to Europe, as traders see an open arbitrage route. The tighter spread can act as an early indicator that U.S. crude exports will likely fall in the next few weeks, assuming the premium for Brent crude remains weak. The inclusion of WTI-Midland crude in the dated Brent index has meant that the spread between the two is increasingly correlated to freight rates, as the price of Dated Brent is set by WTI Midland on many trading days. (Reuters)
Technicals
Technically, the spread still has positive momentum basis the Stochastic indicator for the WTI versus the Brent. But, the RSI of 71 signals an overbought condition as per that technical indicator. The last time the RSI was over 70---back in late May--the arbitrage spread fell 20 cents in favor of the Brent crude at that time. Today's high is $2.79, thus making for a double top with Friday's high of $2.78. The daily chart's upper bollinger band lies just above that at $2.75. There are previous highs at $2.89/$2.91 from the end of May and Friday's low is $2.910. We lean to a close below ( thus greater than ) $2.91 possibly signaling to WTI bulls to be cautious. Support below for the WTI versus the Brent looks to lie firstly at $3.15/$3.16.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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